Friday, April 22, 2005

Why the No-Go for Shingo?

The first month of the regular season isn't even over yet, and the White Sox already have a closer controversy.
Shingo Takatsu, who established himself as a dependable closer in 2004 with a 2.31 ERA and 19 Saves in 59 appearances, has looked wild so far in 2005. Despite his five saves, he sports an unsightly 9.64 ERA, mainly caused by the April 7 outing when he gave up 3 solo shots in 2/3 innings, blowing the save and eventually leading to the discombobulation of Luis Vizcaino - the sacrificial lamb from the White Sox' bullpen.
As Cheat's Southside Blog points out, Takatsu has struggled to stay ahead of hitters. This is a significant problem, since he doesn't have a dominant fastball to overpower hitters when he can't locate his breaking balls within the strike zone. Furthermore, he's lost velocity on the fastball - he's hovering somewhere between 83 to 86 mph this season, a significant drop from last year's range of 85 to 88 (I even saw him hit 91 a couple times). I suppose the change of pace would still work if he could take a little more off of his slider and curve, but I think that would slow down those pitches to a point where hitters can just stay back and make solid contacft. Since his fastball is fairly mediocre, batters are simply letting the breaking pitches go by and waiting for a fastball to bust out of the park.
Having said these things, I think it's still a bit premature to talk about closer by committee or anything like that. Takatsu's 2005 sample is 4 2/3 innings pitched - that's just not enough, in my opinion, to say that he's not going to cut it. Also, there needs to be credit given to him for his performance from 2004. Perhaps there is an inherent bias toward Takatsu because he isn't the ideal closer that baseball people want - a tall, imposing figure who complements a 95+ mph fastball with a biting slider or a chainsaw cutter. But the bottom line is that his frisbees, 55 mph changeups and a mediocre fastball got the job done for the White Sox last year. He deserves a better fate than second-guessing in the first month of his second season, and certainly more confidence shown to him by Ozzie Guillen than in April 19, when he got yanked with a 1 out, 2 run lead for Damaso Marte. If Guillen wants Takatsu to be his closer, he should give him the opportunity to work it all out on the mound early in the season so there aren't any doubts as to whether he can be dependable at the end of the season. Better to blow some leads earlier in the season than later, I think, when the pennant race gets heated and number of games left are dwindling.

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